Monday, November 01, 2004

Calling the Election

Got an email this afternoon challenging me to call the election. Once I worked through the mental image of calling an election in a ceilidh (take New Hampshire by the hand, swing her round to Maryland, do-si-do the seaboard states, hand it on by the great lakes.. ), I gave it some thought.

I think it might be like last time. I think the forces that want George Bush in (I don't count God as one of them) are powerful enough to put him in. I think there will be more contested votes, more disenfranchised minority groups (maybe look at New Mexico for this) but ultimately more Bush.

I'm not sure its right but it feels inevitable. I just can't stir up a gut response that Kerry will win..

No logic to any of my 'thinking' so argue away...

What do you reckon?

5 comments:

Linda-Joy said...

Don't think it's going to make a difference either way...

jonah said...

I am almost 100% sure that Kerry is going to win. I'll tell you why:

Remember that polls and surveys are just polls and surveys. They all have a margin of error well above any lead that Bush has ever had over Kerry. They are wildly erratic and fluctuate on a daily/hourly basis. Don't believe the hype!!!

None of the polls have used "new" technology to consult voters. That means that suh things at "cellphones" have not been used to poll voting american's. And what does that mean? That means that 18-29 year olds have by and large NOT been polled. All polls of 18-29 year olds have not made major news coverage and have shown that "our" generation are voting more than ever before and we will vote Kerry by a margin of 70% to 30% for Bush.

We will all be surprised, I think.

jude said...

Heard the cell phone/ pollster thing this morning.. that and the (so I'm told) massive amount of overseas based US citizens who have registered to vote this time round (and a hundred other things)make it very interesting. Have to say I'm feeling more Kerry positive today, am beginning to realise that I am quite fickle!!!

Linda-Joy said...

I predict a bush win

tim said...

i think that bush will win, it'll probably come down to who wins Ohio, mmmmmmm

got a good feeling about this one......

;o)